{"title":"OFAC exposure forecast","routeKey":"POST /api/workflows/compliance/exposure-forecast","method":"POST","path":"/api/workflows/compliance/exposure-forecast","description":"Forecast future OFAC wallet exposure for a wallet set using stored OFAC snapshot diffs when available, listedOn backfill when honest, or an explicit caller prior. Returns current exact-match baseline, metadata-weighted per-wallet risk, model limitations, and a report-shaped payload for audit handoff.","proof":"Returns the history basis, target probability, per-wallet exposure rows, sensitivity table, and model limitations for compliance triage.","discipline":"Compliance","category":"workflows/compliance","price":"$0.09 USDC","outputKind":"json","docsOnlyGet":true,"requestExample":{"addresses":["0x1111111111111111111111111111111111111111","0x2222222222222222222222222222222222222222"],"address_metadata":[{"address":"0x1111111111111111111111111111111111111111","exposure_usd":250000,"relationship_tier":"critical","last_activity_days":4,"transaction_count_30d":22,"policy_priority":8},{"address":"0x2222222222222222222222222222222222222222","exposure_usd":1000,"relationship_tier":"low"}],"horizon_days":90,"iterations":30000,"target":{"operator":">=","k":1},"priors":{"list_add_rate_override_per_day":0.25}},"requestSchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"addresses":{"type":"array","description":"Wallet addresses to forecast for future OFAC exact-match exposure.","items":{"type":"string"},"minItems":1,"maxItems":500},"address_metadata":{"type":"array","description":"Optional per-address business metadata used to weight exposure hazard.","items":{"type":"object","properties":{"address":{"type":"string","description":"Wallet address this metadata row describes."},"exposure_usd":{"type":"number","description":"Dollar exposure associated with this wallet."},"relationship_tier":{"type":"string","description":"Relationship risk tier for this wallet.","enum":["low","standard","high","critical"]},"last_activity_days":{"type":"number","description":"Days since the wallet was last active."},"transaction_count_30d":{"type":"number","description":"Transaction count over the trailing 30 days."},"policy_priority":{"type":"number","description":"Optional internal policy priority from 0 to 10."}},"required":["address"],"additionalProperties":false}},"asset":{"type":"string","description":"Optional asset or network ticker filter, such as ETH, USDC, XBT, TRX, ARB, or BSC."},"horizon_days":{"type":"integer","description":"Forecast horizon in days. Values are bounded to 7 through 365."},"iterations":{"type":"integer","description":"Forecast trial count. Values are bounded to 1000 through 100000."},"target":{"type":"object","description":"Target event for the forecast probability.","properties":{"operator":{"type":"string","enum":[">=",">","==","<=","<"]},"k":{"type":"integer","description":"Target count threshold."}},"required":["operator","k"],"additionalProperties":false},"tier_weights":{"type":"object","description":"Optional overrides for low, standard, high, and critical relationship tier weights.","additionalProperties":{"type":"number"}},"priors":{"type":"object","description":"Explicit prior assumptions used only when the caller wants to override the OFAC history cadence.","properties":{"list_add_rate_override_per_day":{"type":"number","description":"Caller-supplied expected OFAC digital-currency address additions per day."}},"additionalProperties":false},"title":{"type":"string","description":"Optional report title."},"summary_focus":{"type":"string","description":"Optional summary focus for the report."}},"required":["addresses"],"additionalProperties":false},"outputExample":{"success":true,"data":{"summary":{"target_probability":0.12,"p50_expected_hits":0,"p90_expected_hits":1,"metadata_coverage_percent":100},"forecast_model":{"history_basis":"snapshot_diff","model_confidence":"standard"}},"report":{"report_meta":{"report_type":"compliance-exposure-forecast"},"headline_metrics":[],"tables":{"per_wallet_exposure":{"columns":["address","screening_status","future_hit_probability"],"rows":[]}}},"source":"OFAC SDN Advanced XML"},"relatedLinks":[{"label":"Queue optimizer","href":"/api/workflows/compliance/queue-optimize","description":"Turn forecasted wallet exposure into a ranked review queue."},{"label":"EDD memo","href":"/api/workflows/compliance/edd-report","description":"Generate the formal memo once forecast and screening evidence have been reviewed."}],"curlExample":"curl -X POST \"https://api.aurelianflo.com/api/workflows/compliance/exposure-forecast\" \\\n  -H \"Accept: application/json\" \\\n  -H \"Content-Type: application/json\" \\\n  # include x402 settlement headers after the initial 402 challenge \\\n  -d '{\n  \"addresses\": [\n    \"0x1111111111111111111111111111111111111111\",\n    \"0x2222222222222222222222222222222222222222\"\n  ],\n  \"address_metadata\": [\n    {\n      \"address\": \"0x1111111111111111111111111111111111111111\",\n      \"exposure_usd\": 250000,\n      \"relationship_tier\": \"critical\",\n      \"last_activity_days\": 4,\n      \"transaction_count_30d\": 22,\n      \"policy_priority\": 8\n    },\n    {\n      \"address\": \"0x2222222222222222222222222222222222222222\",\n      \"exposure_usd\": 1000,\n      \"relationship_tier\": \"low\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"horizon_days\": 90,\n  \"iterations\": 30000,\n  \"target\": {\n    \"operator\": \">=\",\n    \"k\": 1\n  },\n  \"priors\": {\n    \"list_add_rate_override_per_day\": 0.25\n  }\n}'","links":{"apiCatalog":"https://api.aurelianflo.com/api","openApi":"https://api.aurelianflo.com/openapi.json","mcpDocs":"https://api.aurelianflo.com/mcp/docs"}}